Two winter storms to start and end the workweek
Sunday, March 2, 2025
Bluebird skies and temperatures in the mid-thirties at all elevations are over Steamboat Springs late this Sunday morning. Enjoy the last full day of springlike weather that started last week ahead of increasing clouds by Monday afternoon, heralding the arrival of the first of two winter storms that will bring significant snows to start and end the workweek.
An eddy of low pressure approaching the Texas Panhandle has stayed south of our area, keeping our stretch of sunny days uninterrupted for today. But that changes on Monday as a splitting storm along the West Coast moves inland. Most of the storm energy will be in the southern part of the split, forming an eddy that moves across the Great Basin early Monday and Colorado Monday night.
After a mostly sunny start to Monday, clouds will overspread the area around noon ahead of a cold front in the afternoon, bringing moderate to heavy snow showers that will last through midnight. Snowfall rates around an inch an hour or more at times may lead to difficult travel over Rabbit Ears Pass.
Snowfall rates will decrease for a time by Tuesday morning ahead of a secondary cold front associated with the northern part of the split dragging cool air from western Canada down the Rockies. We could see 5-10” of snow reported at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort by Tuesday morning before snow showers restart by the afternoon in our favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow behind the storm.
We could see another 3-6” fall between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with snow showers grudgingly ending by noon. A short break in the weather will last into Thursday before the next and perhaps more significant storm brings another round of accumulating snowfall from Thursday afternoon into Saturday morning.
While we may see a brief return of springlike weather after these two storms, enjoy today’s gorgeous warm weather and the winter weather to start the workweek, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the second winter storm.
Spring Fever to arrive today and last through the weekend
Thursday, February 27, 2025
Bluebird skies and temperatures in the mid-twenties at all elevations are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday at noon. Gorgeous springlike weather with clear skies and warming temperatures are forecast through Saturday, with the warm temperatures remaining on Sunday even if we see some clouds from a passing storm to our south. Cooler and wetter weather returns for the start of the following workweek.
Our first case of Spring Fever arrives in full force today after a disappointingly unproductive couple of weather disturbances passed through our area on Tuesday and Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure has now built over the West bringing three days of sunny skies, with high temperatures rising from around forty degrees today, mid-forties on Friday and around fifty degrees on Saturday, well above our average of forty degrees. The high temperature records are 52 F on Friday, set in 1940, 53 F on Saturday, set in 1983 and 56 F on Sunday, set in 1992, and our best chance of challenging a record will be on Saturday, the first day of meteorological spring.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure off the West Coast has just split, with the southern part of the split forming an eddy that will be pushed eastward by a powerful storm developing south of the Aleutian Islands. The weather forecast models have struggled with the track of the eddy after it begins traveling through the Desert Southwest on Saturday, with the eddy predicted to be between central New Mexico and southern Colorado by Sunday. We may see some clouds Sunday, which may lower high temperatures by several degrees, but precipitation for our area is unlikely.
At the same time, the Aleutian storm is forecast to cross the California coast on Sunday, with a complex evolution that brings the first part of the storm through our area late Monday or early Tuesday. A second wave is forecast to follow later Tuesday, with our area seeing good chances for significant accumulations through midweek.
Enjoy what promises to be a gorgeous springlike weekend, and I’ll have more details about the impending pattern change in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Meager snow chances to start the week
Sunday, February 23, 2025
Brilliant blue skies are over Steamboat Springs this Sunday at noon with temperatures in the low-thirties in town and low-twenties at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. A weak wave on Monday and a mostly dry cold front later Tuesday will bring clouds and meager snow chances through Wednesday before our first case of Spring Fever washes over the West and closes out the month of February.
A ridge of high pressure over the West has been flattened by a series of Pacific storms carrying remnants of atmospheric rivers through the Pacific Northwest. One wave approaching Vancouver will bring clouds to our area starting tonight and perhaps some high-elevation snow showers leaving little accumulations through Monday as it travels through Montana.
Another colder wave, forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest on Monday, will take a more southern track and graze our area with a cold front Tuesday within several hours of noon. There may be a better chance to see some accumulations, though they will likely only be in the 1-4” range.
High temperatures ahead of the cold front are forecast to be around forty degrees through Tuesday, several degrees warmer than our average of 38 F, with low temperatures in the twenties, over ten degrees above our average of 11 F thanks to the insulating effects of any overnight clouds.
Snow showers may occur during the first half of Wednesday before skies clear later in the day, with daytime temperatures decreasing by around ten degrees. If skies stay clear overnight, expect a chilly Thursday morning with lows below average and in the single digits.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the forties are forecast for Thursday, with temperatures warming further into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West ahead of an approaching Pacific storm. The dry skies and temperatures around fifty degrees will no doubt create our first episode of Spring Fever ahead of unsettled weather likely to return to our area soon after the weekend.
If it’s going to be cloudy, it might as well be snowing, so let’s hope these approaching waves pack more punch than forecast. Otherwise, enjoy the coming springlike weather to end the workweek, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on how springlike the first weekend of meteorological spring could be.
Warming and drying to follow some snow this evening
Thursday, February 20, 2025
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties in Steamboat Springs and the mid-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly cloudy skies with peeks of sun this Thursday at noon. An approaching storm will bring some snow to our area later this afternoon and evening, but will be over by Saturday as temperatures warm under mostly sunny skies. Some clouds return Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a weak grazing storm for Monday.
In addition to the 20” of snowfall at mid-mountain and 29” up top collated in Sunday’s weather narrative, another 19” at mid-mountain and 23” up top accumulated through the workweek as of this morning, boosting the upper-mountain base to 108”.
The final storm in this series that started almost two weeks ago has been difficult to forecast, with even the shortest-range weather forecast models still changing. The storm is trending further south, which diminishes the snowfall forecast for our area for the storm’s beginning, and stronger, which diminishes the snowfall forecast for the storm’s end. The storm, in east-central Utah, is forecast to briefly strengthen and form an eddy that moves across central Colorado tonight. The trend further south will limit the energy that moves overhead late this afternoon and this evening, while air moving counter-clockwise around the eddy will bring winds from the east, limiting precipitation after midnight.
So now I expect only 3-6” to be reported by the Friday morning mid-mountain report, with the best snowfall between late this afternoon and midnight. I would not be surprised if the storm under or over-achieves, depending upon its final track and strength, so check the mid-mountain powdercam and the upper-mountain powdercam, or better yet, simply set your SnowAlarm. There may be some flurries to start Friday, but a weakening ridge of high pressure is forecast to move through our area from later Friday through midday Saturday bringing periods of sun and high temperatures around freezing on Friday and several degrees below our average of 37 F on Saturday.
Even as a weak and splitting wave crosses the West Coast Friday night and moves around our area starting later Saturday, bringing some clouds for Saturday night and Sunday, temperatures are expected to reach the upper-thirties on Sunday and low-forties on Monday.
A weak wave in the northward-migrating jet stream may bring some high-elevation snow flurries on Monday, with uncertainty high for a possible quick-moving midweek storm in our favorable northwest flow.
Let’s hope the incoming storm is more productive than forecast, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the possible midweek storm.
Another round of significant snow to fall through at least midweek
Sunday, February 16, 2025
Temperatures are in the low twenties with an occasional flurry this Sunday at noon in Steamboat Springs and the mid-teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort with occasional light snow. Several Pacific waves of energy in moist and favorable winds from the northwest and west will restart the snow machine by this afternoon with significant accumulations expected through Wednesday morning. There may be another storm for Thursday behind a short break later Wednesday.
Snowfall from the just-ended event arrived in time for the Friday morning ski report as expected, with mid-mountain reporting twenty inches through this morning, and twenty-nine inches at the summit. Snowfall during the day Friday ended up being lower than forecast due to moisture in the atmospheric river being spottier than predicted. The three days of accumulation over the Yampa-White-Little Snake River Basin encompassing north-central Colorado contained 1.7” of liquid water that brought the season total to 14”, 95% of the 14.7” 30-year average.
Our next storm currently bringing precipitation to the Pacific Northwest has started some light snow showers, which should become moderate to heavy by sunset as the first piece of energy ejecting from the storm moves overhead. The storm will generally be warm, like the last one, with some cool air arriving behind the storm Tuesday night when snowfall will be tapering off.
Due to the storm traversing between a vortex of frigid air now centered in southern Manitoba and the warm air in the Desert Southwest, expect winds around 25 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph tonight. Another wave ejecting from the parent storm will keep snowfall going during the day, and though winds will decrease a bit Monday morning, they will pick up again through the day peaking at around 30 mph with gusts twice that by noon.
I would expect 6-12” at mid-mountain by the Monday morning report, with snowfall continuing through the day and overnight for another 6-12” by Tuesday morning as what is left of the parent storm moves through Colorado. Winds will thankfully decrease on Tuesday, though remain brisk with gusts as high as 40 mph by the end of the day.
Snowfall should be tapering off after noon on Tuesday, though with cool air arriving Tuesday night thanks to the Manitoba vortex sinking south and stretching westward, there may be enough moisture behind the storm for a round of lower-density snow for Wednesday. While the weather forecast models are generally unexcited about that prospect, keep an eye on the mid-mountain powdercam and the summit powdercam for the possibility of 4-8” of fluffier snowfall by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, a piece of energy will eject out of a large storm near the Aleutian Islands early Tuesday and split as it crosses the Pacific Northwest coast on Wednesday. While we should see at least a short break in the snowfall starting Wednesday afternoon, it is unclear if we will see possibly significant snow for Thursday.
Regardless, it appears our active stretch of weather will end for a time as the jet stream lifts northward by Friday. So enjoy another snowy workweek, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon, unless significant changes to the splitting storm demand an update on Wednesday.
