Good rain chances to bookend the weekend
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Temperatures reached the low-to-mid seventies early this Thursday afternoon and have fallen into the mid-sixties late this afternoon after a passing shower. Continued abundant monsoonal moisture may allow for another shower today with better chances on Friday before activity may decrease for a time on Saturday. But Sunday looks like another active day as the first fall-like cool front of the season approaches our area.
A ridge of high pressure is currently located over most of the country save for two strong troughs of low pressure located over the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast. The Pacific Northwest storm has already nudged the center of the high pressure towards Texas and the southwest winds ahead of the storm and on the backside of the high pressure have brought abundant monsoonal moisture into the region, highlighted by a brief but strong thunderstorm yesterday afternoon that dropped between three and four-tenths of an inch of rain around town in about fifteen minutes.
The cloudy morning has limited the sunshine today, leading to the pleasantly cool but humid weather with the relative humidity late this afternoon around seventy percent, well above the twenty percent recorded early on Wednesday afternoon. We may see another shower early this evening before the next round of showers could pass through early Friday morning thanks to some storms brewing over northeast Arizona.
Clouds associated with those possible showers may delay additional storms from forming until later in the day, and good shower chances will continue through the night as high temperatures on Friday again reach the mid-seventies, about five degrees below our average of 81 F.
By Saturday, the Pacific Northwest trough is forecast to elongate southward, with the northern end moving into Alberta and the southern end pinwheeling into Nevada. There is a slot of dry air ahead of the trough which may decrease the storm activity during the morning and early afternoon, though late-afternoon and evening showers may still be possible with high temperatures a degree or two warmer than Friday.
By Sunday, the trough is forecast to weaken with the southern part moving slowly toward our area, eventually bringing the first fall-like cool front through our area later in the day or early Monday. Another active day is forecast with stronger storms possible ahead of the front after noon, with high temperatures struggling to reach seventy degrees.
Snow levels are forecast to fall below 13,000′ by Monday morning, so if the precipitation can last through Sunday night, a dusting of snow may adorn the highest peaks of the Zirkels. But there is some uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of the cool front, and I’ll have more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Tuesday to be the warmest and driest day of the workweek
Sunday, August 18, 2024
Temperatures are in the comfortable mid-seventies under mostly sunny skies early this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. We should see a pleasant day today with showers holding off until mid-evening before becoming more sporadic overnight. Storm chances will hang around on Monday before taking a break on Tuesday, resuming on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the work week.
A ridge of high pressure over the Rockies is sandwiched between areas of low pressure centered just off the Pacific Northwest coast and the Ohio River Valley. Monsoonal moisture has been carried over our area from the south thanks to the southerly winds on the backside of the clockwise circulation around the high, with only some light and scattered showers around town starting late yesterday afternoon.
A well-defined wave rotating around the high is currently entering Utah and will be over our area around mid-evening. So look for dry skies this afternoon with high temperatures in the low-eighties, right around our falling average of 81 F, before the showers associated with the wave start this mid-evening and become more sporadic after midnight.
More thunderstorms are possible on Monday after noon, though short-range models currently have the best activity just to our south. A downturn in storm activity is expected on Tuesday as the southern end of the ridge briefly squirts westward thanks to the strengthening of the Ohio River Valley low pressure area, temporarily severing the tap of monsoonal moisture. Look for low storm chances with plenty of sun and high temperatures a few degrees above average.
Meanwhile, a strong storm over the Bering Sea has incorporated some cold air from the North Pole, and will split as it moves across the Gulf of Alaska early in the week. The southern end of the storm is forecast to drop along the British Columbia coast through midweek which will dislodge the existing low pressure area over the Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and nudge the high pressure ridge back to the east.
Monsoonal moisture will once again be carried overhead in the southerly winds on the backside of the high pressure, and will conspire with the southern end of the northeastward-moving Pacific Northwest storm to create good chances of strong storms by Wednesday afternoon and continuing overnight.
Trailing energy will keep the storm chances around through at least Thursday and Friday as temperatures cool into the mid-seventies.
There is weather forecast model uncertainty for the weekend related to how strong the British Columbia storm will be and how quickly it moves east and toward our area. A faster storm will clear the moisture from our area early in the weekend while a slower storm may allow the moisture and storm chances to stick around on Saturday. In any event, the storm looks strong enough to bring the first fall-like cool front through our area sometime next weekend.
So enjoy the summery start to the work week, keep your Gore-Tex handy for the showers starting midweek, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on our first fall-like cool front of the season.
Back to normal summer weather for the weekend
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Temperatures are approaching the mid-seventies this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny skies after a cool forty-degree start to the day. The rains could not stay away today as a mid-morning shower made it seven days in a row with rain, and eight days out of the last nine. But normal summer weather returns for the weekend as temperatures rise into the eighties, and a dry Friday will be followed by another surge of monsoonal moisture for the second half of the weekend.
We were a few hundredths below the average of 0.7” through last weekend for the first ten days of August, and the estimated three-quarters of an inch of rain since then should put us well on the way to the August average of 1.8”. This is good news since July was short of the average 1.72” by about two-thirds of an inch.
Another strong storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to be off the northern California coast by Saturday. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the West ahead of the storm, and after a chance for some passing showers this afternoon thanks to lingering moisture, we should see a sunny, dry and very pleasant Friday with temperatures right at our average of 82 F.
As the Gulf of Alaska storm approaches the northern California coast, the ridge of high pressure will be nudged to the east, allowing more monsoonal moisture to be pulled toward our area from the south on the backside of the ridge. The high temperature on Saturday should rise toward 85 F before chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms return, with better chances on Sunday as high temperatures first cool back to average and Monday as high temperatures cool further toward eighty degrees.
Our weather for the rest of the week will be determined by how the storm off the northern coast of California interacts with the ridge of high pressure, and whether the ridge stays far enough east to continue the flow of monsoonal moisture or moves far enough west to sever the monsoonal connection.
So enjoy the pleasant start to the weekend, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on how long the monsoonal moisture may stick around.
Good rain chances and cool weather to continue through midweek
Sunday, August 11, 2024
After some rain early this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs, skies briefly cleared before clouding over again this mid-afternoon with comfortable temperatures in the mid-seventies. Good storm chances with high temperatures only in the mid to low-seventies will remain with us through midweek before temperatures return to around eighty degrees under drier skies starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend.
A flat ridge of high pressure still over the southern U.S. is bounded to the north by a seasonably active jet stream extending across the northern U.S. and anchored by troughs of low pressure over the West Coast and the Great Lakes. Monsoonal moisture first carried northward into Utah has approached us from the west and conspired with ripples of energy moving through the jet stream to create the cool weather and thunderstorms that have left between a third and half inch of rain across town since Friday.
The average high temperature is 82 F this week, and we will stay between five and ten degrees below average through Wednesday as good storm chances continue through both the day and night in the cool air under the jet stream. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the coolest days of the week with high temperatures struggling to reach the mid-seventies, with Tuesday likely the wettest day of the week before we see a final round of storms Wednesday afternoon and overnight as the West Coast trough moves through the northern Rockies and drags a cool front through our area.
That front will temporarily sweep the monsoonal moisture to the east as a building ridge of high pressure behind the cool front brings drier skies and warming temperatures by Thursday, with high temperatures returning to near eighty degrees by Friday and continuing into the weekend. Weather forecast models often are too eager to dry the atmosphere after a monsoonal surge, so low storm chances may persist even as we see lots of sunshine.
Another storm is forecast to replace the departed West Coast storm by the weekend, and we may see a return of monsoonal moisture later next weekend as winds turn to be from the south and southwest ahead of the storm. So enjoy the cool and sometimes stormy start to the workweek, look forward to the nice summer days to end the workweek, and check back for the weekend details in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures to cool with good rain chances lasting through the weekend
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Clouds have invaded the Steamboat Springs area early this Thursday afternoon with comfortable temperatures in the mid-seventies. These clouds herald the arrival of monsoonal moisture which will keep high temperatures around eighty degrees and allow for good rain chances through the weekend and into the following workweek.
The jet stream is currently oriented over the northern two-thirds of the U.S., separating cool air centered over the upper Midwest from a flat ridge of hot high pressure over the southern half of the country, save for the remnants of Tropical Storm Debbie currently over the Carolinas. Luckily, the high temperatures of 92 F over last weekend, which on Saturday was one degree shy of the record 93 F set in 2000, have been replaced by cooler air under the jet stream with high temperatures near eighty degrees forecast through the week, comfortably below our average of 83 F.
Additionally, monsoonal moisture rotating around the high pressure cell over the Southwest has approached us from the west. Modest rain chances will start later today and possibly Friday, but become likely through the weekend and into next week. Rain chances on Friday are uncertain thanks to a pocket of dry air currently centered over the Great Salt Lake that may or may not be close enough to reduce the chance of storms.
The proximity of the jet stream will allow ripples in the flow to interact with the monsoonal moisture, encouraging storms even at night. Any storm may produce brief moderate to heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds.
Lastly, the NOAA Smoke Plume Model shows smoke from California wildfires in and out of our area over at least the next 48 hours which may affect air quality. That model is updated four times a day, so make your own forecasts through the weekend by clicking the View All button and then checking the Animate checkbox at the top of the map screen.
Enjoy the cooler weekend, hope for the rains to come and the smoke to stay away, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for details on how long this monsoonal moisture surge may last.
